您现在的位置:首页 > 考研 > 备考资料 > 考研英语 >

考研英语英文原刊《经济学人》油价下跌 赚了or赔了进入阅读模式

考研英语英文原刊《经济学人》油价下跌 赚了or赔了 进入阅读模式 点我咨询

2014-11-04 20:01:26| 来源:考研考试网

Cheaper oil

油价下跌

Winners and losers

赚了还是赔了?

America and its friends benefit from falling oil prices;its most strident critics don't

美国及其盟友将从油价下跌中获益;为毒舌的批评者们却不能如此

IN EARLY October the IMF looked at what might happen to the world economy if conflict in Iraqcaused an oil-price shock. Fighters from Islamic State (IS) were pushing into the country'snorth and the fund worried about a sharp price rise, of 20% in a year. Global GDP would fall by0.5-1.5%, it concluded. Equity prices in rich countries would decline by 3-7%, and inflationwould be at least half a point higher.

十月初,国际货币基金组织(IMF)预估了一旦伊拉克冲突导致油价震荡会带来怎样的后果。 伊斯兰国(IS)的武装分子在向该国北部进军时,IMF担心今年油价可能会猛增约20%。它还估计今年球GDP增速可能会下滑0.5%至1.5%。富裕国家的股价跌幅可能会达到3%至7%,而通胀率可能至少会上浮0.5个百分点。

IS is still advancing.Russia, the world's third-biggest producer, is embroiledinUkraine.Iraq,Syria,Nigeria and Libya, oil producers all, are in turmoil. But the price of Brentcrude fell over 25% from 115 abarrel in mid-June to under 85 inmid-October, before recoveringa little. Such a shift has global consequences. Who are the winners and losers?

IS仍在继续进军。世界上第三大出口国俄罗斯也身陷乌克兰国内的冲突中。伊拉克、叙利亚、尼日利亚和利比亚这些石油生产国都处在动荡中。但是北海布伦特原油的价格却从七月中旬的每桶115美元跌至十月中旬的不足85美元,跌幅超过25%,随后又出现小幅回升。这样的价格波动给球都带来了影响。那么谁是赢家谁是输家呢?

The first winner is the world economy itself. A 10% change in the oil price is associated witharound a 0.2% change in global GDP, says Tom Helbling of the IMF. A price fall normally boostsGDP by shifting resources from producers to consumers, who are more likely to spend theirgains than wealthy sheikhdoms. If increased supply is the driving force, the effect is likely to bebigger—as in America, where shale gas drove prices down relative to Europe and, says the IMF,boosted manufactured exports by 6% compared with the rest of the world. But if it reflectsweak demand, consumers may save the windfall.

第一个赢家当属球经济本身。IMF的汤姆·赫尔布林表示,油价波动10%,就会带来球GDP约0.2%的浮动。正常情况下,油价下跌会助推GDP的增长,因为会将石油从生产国那里转移给消费国,而后者比那些富裕的酋长国支出收益的可能性更大。如果石油供应增加成为驱动力,那么它的影响会更大—因为美国的页岩气推动了石油价格下跌,而IMF表示,与之有关的欧洲推进了制造品出口,涨幅较世界其他地区而言,达到了6%。但是,如果油价下跌反映出需求趋弱,那么消费国可能会大获横财。

Today's falling prices are caused by shifts in both supply and demand. The world's slowingeconomy, and stalled recoveries in Europe and Japan, are reining back the demand for oil. Butthere has been a big supply shock, too. Thanks largely to America, oil production since early2013 has been running at 1m-2mbarrels per day (b/d) higher than the year before. Otherinfluences are acting as a brake on the world economy. But a price cut of 25% for oil, ifmaintained, should mean that global GDP will be roughly 0.5% higher than it would beotherwise.

石油供需的变化共同导致了今天的油价下跌。世界经济增速缓慢,欧洲和日本的经济恢复近乎停滞,这些都抑制了对石油的需求。但是,石油供给也遭受了冲击。美国自2013年初起其石油的日产量就比去年增加了一两百万桶,这可是大功臣。还有其他的一些影响成为世界经济增长的后腿。但是如果能维持油价25%的跌幅,这就意味着球GDP增速会提约0.5%。

Some countries stand to gain a lot more than that average, and others, to lose out. The worldproduces just over 90mb/d of oil. At 115 abarrel, that is worth roughly 3.8 trillion a year; at 85,just 2.8 trillion. Any country or group that consumes more than it produces gains from the 1trillion transfer—importers, most of all.

一些国家的收益肯定会比其他国家多,但也有一些国家会损失不少。球每天的石油产量仅为900万桶,按每桶115美元算,其每年的产量大约值3.8万亿美元。如果每桶为85美元,其价值仅为2.8万亿美元。如果任何一个国家或集团的石油产量低于消费量,那么它便能从这一万亿美元获益——大多数是石油进口国。

China is the world's second-largest net importer of oil. Based on 2013 figures, every 1 drop inthe oil price saves it an annual 2.1 billion. The recent fall, if sustained, lowers its import bill by60 billion, or 3%. Most of its exports are manufactured goods whose prices have not fallen.Unless weak demand changes that, its foreign currency will go further, and living standardsshould rise.

中国是世界上第二大石油进口国。根据2013年的数据来看,油价每下跌1美元,每年便能为其节约21亿美元。如果近的油价下跌情况能够保持住,将会为其节约600亿美元的石油进口费用(约3%)。中国的出口大多为工业制成品,其价格已经在走低。如果疲弱的需求会改变这种局面,该国的外汇便会增加,人民生活水平也会相应提。翻译:江虹蕾 校对:董思琪

(责任编辑:gaolin)
THE END  

声明:本站点发布的来源标注为“中公教育”的文章,版权均属中公教育所有,未经允许不得转载。

返回顶部

免责声明:本站所提供试题均来源于网友提供或网络搜集,由本站编辑整理,仅供个人研究、交流学习使用,不涉及商业盈利目的。如涉及版权问题,请联系本站管理员予以更改或删除。

中公教育

回复“2022”领取备考大礼包

点我咨询

热门招聘关注查看备考干货关注查看实时互动关注查看

猜你喜欢 换一换  

微信公众号
中公考研网微信公众号
微博二维码
中公考研官方微博
咨询电话

400 6300 966

在线客服 点击咨询

投诉建议:400 6300 966